Black Swan

 

We know of swans as white. In Hinduism, it is accorded a special place as a "vaahan" (vehicle) for Goddess Saraswathi (goddess of learning and music). Most depictions of swans are as a white bird. It also symbolises purity of thought and action. Purity of the soul. Probably, 3000 years ago, white was the colour of purity and black the colour of "rakshas"... (Picture of white swan from here)


Europeans, too, thought there were only white swans in the world.  If someone wanted to signify an event which would have a very, very low probability of occurrence, he would say, "it will happen when I see a black swan". Things went swimmingly, until someone found black swans to be native of Australia and New Zealand sometime in the early 18th century, perhaps. The shock and surprise was complete. Black swans did not come with an adjective of high improbability. They were just not native to Europe, but not rare at all.

The consequences of such realizations have been the subject of a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (more details here) and the title of his book is appropriately "The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable". It has attracted the attention of people in Wall Street and academia who have come to recognize in this book the near impracticality of predicting "black swan events" - events that are extremely rare, but whose impact is far-reaching and probably global. (Image of black swan from here).

Extreme examples are 9/11 and the aftermath in terms of war, increased security, man-hunt and the changes that we see to this day - 11 years on. More recently, we had the Covid 19 pandemic that ravaged the world and killed millions within a very short time - probably of the scale of a world war. On the positive side, we have Internet, Google, mobile telecommunication (especially in India), and the rapid technological changes it has wrought in society and business as a result.

Could anyone have predicted these? There is someone who has, strangely. A futurologist called Ray Kurzweil (more here) who has been able to predict many "black swan" events with timelines. Among his predictions was the power of internet, wireless communication and internet access, nano-technology, and power of chess programs to routinely win against the best humans. His predictions are here.

Of interest to me is not these phenomena which are global. If there are black swan events on a global scale, can we not have black swan events at a country, province, district, village, or family level too? Events which are not foreseen, but which can have intense impact when it does happen. I can think of the 2004 tsunami which devastated many coastal towns and villages in Tamil Nadu, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Indonesia. For those villages and towns the event was a black swan event. Highly improbable, but with devastating consequences for life and savings. Tsunamis in the Pacific were the reasons for the advance warning systems that were established along the Pacific - from US through Hawaii upto Japan. But no one predicted that an Indian ocean tsunami could be so enormous - at least till Dec 26, 2004.

Without going through the country, state, province, district, and village levels for other examples, let me go to the black swan events that can rock a family. What do we say happens to Mr. Sushil Kumar who was the winner of the Rs. 5 crore jackpot prize during season 5 of the popular quiz show, Kaun Banega Crorepati (KBC) (inspired by the British show, Who wants to be a Millionaire)? A computer operator, whose monthly salary was 6,000 rupees. His life would have taken a totally different turn since winning the top prize in KBC 5. A black swan event in his family. On the positive side, no doubt. Coming to think of it, wasn't KBC itself a black swan event for Star Plus (now on Sony Entertainment Television) and for the career of Amitabh Bachchan, its host? 

At a personal level, illnesses and its consequent effect on the person can be a black swan event. I have had three of them in my life - each made an enormous impact in my life.

No, marriages are NOT black swan events in one's life - even though it changes one completely. You see, it is inevitable and you know you are going to "fall" into it. It is not in the category of "highly improbable".